August 18, 2017, 06:48:20 pm

Author Topic: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5  (Read 1613 times)

✰Alpha✰

  • Commando
  • Game Bot
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *****
  • Posts: 3119
  • Child of Despair
  • Rated: +1895
One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« on: May 27, 2017, 05:17:14 am »
TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOGS

Votes due/game ends in

@Blindknagg
@ForgeDigger
@jasonC
@Missing Person
@Pimp Willy
@Reiraku

Players
Blindknagg
ForgeDigger
jasonC
Missing Person
Pimp Willy
Reiraku
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs
Lynch: RadicalFuzz
Quote from: tortugagrande
That bio is the douchiest thing I have read all year, and I am an editor for yeswearedouchebags.com.

Vote Bot

  • The Vote Gatekeeper
  • Game Bot
  • White Toast
  • *****
  • Posts: 1221
  • Toasty!
  • Rated: +23
Current Votes
« Reply #1 on: May 27, 2017, 05:30:04 am »
No Vote(6):Blindknagg, ForgeDigger, jasonC, Missing Person, Pimp Willy, Reiraku
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs

jasonC

  • Mafia Endgame
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 3645
  • Rated: +731
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #2 on: May 27, 2017, 07:37:53 am »
Happy Memorial Weekend, fellow Americans.

One of the cards in the middle is the Troublemaker.
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs

jasonC

  • Mafia Endgame
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 3645
  • Rated: +731
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #3 on: May 27, 2017, 07:39:42 am »
Vote Registered For jasonC

...for now.
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs

Vote Bot

  • The Vote Gatekeeper
  • Game Bot
  • White Toast
  • *****
  • Posts: 1221
  • Toasty!
  • Rated: +23
Current Votes
« Reply #4 on: May 27, 2017, 08:00:04 am »
No Vote(5):Blindknagg, ForgeDigger, Missing Person, Pimp Willy, Reiraku
jasonC(1):jasonC
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs

ForgeDigger

  • One True Starfish
  • Mafia Endgame
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 2513
  • I hate you
  • Rated: +612
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #5 on: May 27, 2017, 08:23:15 am »
Hello guys. Willy is robber.
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs
かえるおねがい!

c:

Blindknagg

  • Toasts in the Sky
  • Mafia Endgame
  • White Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 1586
  • Rated: +467
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #6 on: May 27, 2017, 09:27:18 am »
One of the middle cards are the drunk.

Sent from my SM-A300FU using Tapatalk

  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs

jasonC

  • Mafia Endgame
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 3645
  • Rated: +731
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #7 on: May 27, 2017, 10:10:49 am »
One of the middle cards are the drunk.

Sent from my SM-A300FU using Tapatalk

Ooh. Do I believe you? Nah.

Vote Registered For  Blindknagg
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs

Blindknagg

  • Toasts in the Sky
  • Mafia Endgame
  • White Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 1586
  • Rated: +467
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #8 on: May 27, 2017, 10:17:15 am »
Ooh. Do I believe you? Nah.

Vote Registered For  Blindknagg


Its true though.
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs

Vote Bot

  • The Vote Gatekeeper
  • Game Bot
  • White Toast
  • *****
  • Posts: 1221
  • Toasty!
  • Rated: +23
Current Votes
« Reply #9 on: May 27, 2017, 10:30:04 am »
No Vote(5):Blindknagg, ForgeDigger, Missing Person, Pimp Willy, Reiraku
Invalid Vote(1):jasonC
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs

jasonC

  • Mafia Endgame
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 3645
  • Rated: +731
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #10 on: May 27, 2017, 10:53:43 am »
Vote Registered For Blindknagg

Guess what the other card in the middle I peeked was.
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs

Vote Bot

  • The Vote Gatekeeper
  • Game Bot
  • White Toast
  • *****
  • Posts: 1221
  • Toasty!
  • Rated: +23
Current Votes
« Reply #11 on: May 27, 2017, 11:00:04 am »
No Vote(5):Blindknagg, ForgeDigger, Missing Person, Pimp Willy, Reiraku
Blindknagg(1):jasonC
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs

Blindknagg

  • Toasts in the Sky
  • Mafia Endgame
  • White Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 1586
  • Rated: +467
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #12 on: May 27, 2017, 11:31:00 am »
Vote Registered For Blindknagg

Guess what the other card in the middle I peeked was.
I dunno. One of the roles should be the drunk though.
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs

ForgeDigger

  • One True Starfish
  • Mafia Endgame
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 2513
  • I hate you
  • Rated: +612
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #13 on: May 27, 2017, 01:43:26 pm »
What if jason is the Tanner
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs
かえるおねがい!

c:

Reiraku

  • Mafia Endgame
  • Rye Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 216
  • Bagel
  • Rated: +44
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #14 on: May 27, 2017, 02:01:07 pm »
Villager here. I'm boring.
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs

jasonC

  • Mafia Endgame
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 3645
  • Rated: +731
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #15 on: May 27, 2017, 02:06:23 pm »
What if jason is the Tanner

Then I would be losing.
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs

ForgeDigger

  • One True Starfish
  • Mafia Endgame
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 2513
  • I hate you
  • Rated: +612
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #16 on: May 27, 2017, 02:12:41 pm »
You voted for yourself first
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs
かえるおねがい!

c:

Missing Person

  • Fuck yo' ST, nigga!
  • Spam Defender
  • Jesus Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 5470
  • Yatta!
  • Rated: +1397
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #17 on: May 27, 2017, 02:52:27 pm »
If jason was Tanner, acting like an imbecile would pay off just because it would become a 50/50 to vote for him or label him Toogs and vote for him still.

One of those benefits us, and the other doesn't.

The fact that he's drawing attention to him "losing" makes me think he's pushing us away from it because he's Toogs.

Vote Registered For jasonC
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs
"I love you, you love me. Barney raped me by the sea." --Synonym
"Why do I feel like I'm being fooled by you both?  I can't find the penis.  I need to find the penis." --Augustus
"Nobody can read baby." --Pimp Willy
"Get your goddamn Battle Arena Toshinden shit out of my Tekken." --Souther
"That's when I decided to give up on my dream to become an X-Man and begin pursuing girls." --tortugagrande, champion of all our hearts.

Blindknagg

  • Toasts in the Sky
  • Mafia Endgame
  • White Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 1586
  • Rated: +467
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #18 on: May 27, 2017, 02:59:08 pm »
Sounds plausible. @MP

What's the other role you peeked if you're not toogs @jasonC?

Sent from my SM-A300FU using Tapatalk

  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs

Vote Bot

  • The Vote Gatekeeper
  • Game Bot
  • White Toast
  • *****
  • Posts: 1221
  • Toasty!
  • Rated: +23
Current Votes
« Reply #19 on: May 27, 2017, 03:00:04 pm »
No Vote(4):Blindknagg, ForgeDigger, Pimp Willy, Reiraku
jasonC(1):Missing Person
Blindknagg(1):jasonC
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs

jasonC

  • Mafia Endgame
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 3645
  • Rated: +731
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #20 on: May 27, 2017, 03:59:18 pm »
Sounds plausible. @MP

What's the other role you peeked if you're not toogs @jasonC?

Sent from my SM-A300FU using Tapatalk

Thought it was obvious when I voted you properly? If you were drunk, you're 50/50 to be toogs.
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs

Pimp Willy

  • Spam Defender
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 3877
  • Fuck Fantasy Football
  • Rated: +1501
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #21 on: May 27, 2017, 04:15:25 pm »
Hello guys. Willy is robber.

This is indeed true. Sadly, I missed the start of the game and didn't get to submit an action. So the robber I shall stay.

Since you're not Seer, at least JasonC is basically Seer with his claim of center peek, am I to take it you dopplegangered me?
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs
Kaz is a better mafia player than I

ForgeDigger

  • One True Starfish
  • Mafia Endgame
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 2513
  • I hate you
  • Rated: +612
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #22 on: May 27, 2017, 04:17:00 pm »
No, I didn't doppleganger you.
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs
かえるおねがい!

c:

ForgeDigger

  • One True Starfish
  • Mafia Endgame
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 2513
  • I hate you
  • Rated: +612
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #23 on: May 27, 2017, 04:17:16 pm »
I am seer and peeked your role.
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs
かえるおねがい!

c:

Pimp Willy

  • Spam Defender
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 3877
  • Fuck Fantasy Football
  • Rated: +1501
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #24 on: May 27, 2017, 04:19:39 pm »
If jason was Tanner, acting like an imbecile would pay off just because it would become a 50/50 to vote for him or label him Toogs and vote for him still.

One of those benefits us, and the other doesn't.

The fact that he's drawing attention to him "losing" makes me think he's pushing us away from it because he's Toogs.

Vote Registered For jasonC

Theres the chance Forge is the seer and peeked me then...

Oh shit just relaized that all roles are possible in this game... so in that case, here they are in all their possibilities.

Toogs
Toogs
Seer
Troublemaker
Doppelgänger
Robber
Insomniac
Drunk
Tanner
Hunter
Minion
Mason
Mason
Villager
Villager
Villager

  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs
Kaz is a better mafia player than I

Pimp Willy

  • Spam Defender
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 3877
  • Fuck Fantasy Football
  • Rated: +1501
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #25 on: May 27, 2017, 04:20:40 pm »
I am seer and peeked your role.

Alright, thanks. So that makes 2 different seer claims, JasonC and Forge. Tanner is a possibility, though the chance that role got hit is quite low, but something to consider.

Im inclined to believe Forge since she got my role correct
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs
Kaz is a better mafia player than I

Pimp Willy

  • Spam Defender
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 3877
  • Fuck Fantasy Football
  • Rated: +1501
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #26 on: May 27, 2017, 04:21:44 pm »
@✰Alpha✰

Is a no toogs/minion setup possible with the randomized roles or did you make sure to include at least 1 in the roles?
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs
Kaz is a better mafia player than I

Pimp Willy

  • Spam Defender
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 3877
  • Fuck Fantasy Football
  • Rated: +1501
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #27 on: May 27, 2017, 04:26:38 pm »
Player - Claim (Action)

ForgeDigger - Seer (Peeked PimpWilly)
PimpWilly - Robber (No Action)
JasonC - Seer (Peeked 2 center, TroubleMaker/Drunk)
BK - Drunk (Swapped for a center role, hasn't said which)
Reiraku - Villager
MP - No Claim

  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs
Kaz is a better mafia player than I

Pimp Willy

  • Spam Defender
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 3877
  • Fuck Fantasy Football
  • Rated: +1501
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #28 on: May 27, 2017, 04:29:01 pm »
Interestingly, by order of actions, Seer peeking center takes place BEFORE the drunk swap, so its not possible for the Drunk to swap before the seer center peeks and then see the drunk role in the center.

So BKs claim doesnt Gel with Jasons Claim, in other words, though theres no reason to believe either of them is who they say they are
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs
Kaz is a better mafia player than I

Pimp Willy

  • Spam Defender
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 3877
  • Fuck Fantasy Football
  • Rated: +1501
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #29 on: May 27, 2017, 04:29:32 pm »
Vote Registered For Missing Person
Since he seems to want to be the only one not even telling what his role is, I assume hes the most scared to get it wrong
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs
Kaz is a better mafia player than I

Vote Bot

  • The Vote Gatekeeper
  • Game Bot
  • White Toast
  • *****
  • Posts: 1221
  • Toasty!
  • Rated: +23
Current Votes
« Reply #30 on: May 27, 2017, 04:30:04 pm »
No Vote(3):Blindknagg, ForgeDigger, Reiraku
Missing Person(1):Pimp Willy
jasonC(1):Missing Person
Blindknagg(1):jasonC
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs

Missing Person

  • Fuck yo' ST, nigga!
  • Spam Defender
  • Jesus Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 5470
  • Yatta!
  • Rated: +1397
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #31 on: May 27, 2017, 04:47:23 pm »
Vote Registered For Missing Person
Since he seems to want to be the only one not even telling what his role is, I assume hes the most scared to get it wrong

Sorry, I'm in and out of it today. Long ass night last night trying to work on an assignment that I'm still not finished with. I'm troublemaker and switched Blindknagg and Reiraku.
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs
"I love you, you love me. Barney raped me by the sea." --Synonym
"Why do I feel like I'm being fooled by you both?  I can't find the penis.  I need to find the penis." --Augustus
"Nobody can read baby." --Pimp Willy
"Get your goddamn Battle Arena Toshinden shit out of my Tekken." --Souther
"That's when I decided to give up on my dream to become an X-Man and begin pursuing girls." --tortugagrande, champion of all our hearts.

ForgeDigger

  • One True Starfish
  • Mafia Endgame
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 2513
  • I hate you
  • Rated: +612
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #32 on: May 27, 2017, 04:49:09 pm »
Could there really be 2 seers? Iunno.
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs
かえるおねがい!

c:

ForgeDigger

  • One True Starfish
  • Mafia Endgame
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 2513
  • I hate you
  • Rated: +612
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #33 on: May 27, 2017, 04:49:54 pm »
Vote Registered For jasonC cause something isn't right here
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs
かえるおねがい!

c:

jasonC

  • Mafia Endgame
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 3645
  • Rated: +731
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #34 on: May 27, 2017, 04:56:23 pm »
Player - Claim (Action)

ForgeDigger - Seer (Peeked PimpWilly)
PimpWilly - Robber (No Action)
JasonC - Seer (Peeked 2 center, TroubleMaker/Drunk)
BK - Drunk (Swapped for a center role, hasn't said which)
Reiraku - Villager
MP - No Claim

BK won't know.
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs

Vote Bot

  • The Vote Gatekeeper
  • Game Bot
  • White Toast
  • *****
  • Posts: 1221
  • Toasty!
  • Rated: +23
Current Votes
« Reply #35 on: May 27, 2017, 05:00:04 pm »
jasonC(2):ForgeDigger, Missing Person
No Vote(2):Blindknagg, Reiraku
Missing Person(1):Pimp Willy
Blindknagg(1):jasonC
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs

jasonC

  • Mafia Endgame
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 3645
  • Rated: +731
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #36 on: May 27, 2017, 05:09:24 pm »
Ok you got me, I'm not seer.
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs

jasonC

  • Mafia Endgame
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 3645
  • Rated: +731
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #37 on: May 27, 2017, 05:10:32 pm »
Which makes MP's troublemaker claim seemingly legit.
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs

Pimp Willy

  • Spam Defender
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 3877
  • Fuck Fantasy Football
  • Rated: +1501
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #38 on: May 27, 2017, 05:27:31 pm »
True. But think of it this way, if he thinks you're lying, he is gonna pick the center role you went with in the center knowing you're going to back off your claim... hmm. Still seems like it can go either way.

Wouldnt he have pressed you more if he knew you were lying?

Or, think of it this way. Of all the roles in the game... he just happens to have the one that you claimed was in the center, instead of one of the other 12 or so roles he could have had?

Seems thin... I think MP is dirty
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs
Kaz is a better mafia player than I

Pimp Willy

  • Spam Defender
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 3877
  • Fuck Fantasy Football
  • Rated: +1501
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #39 on: May 27, 2017, 05:27:59 pm »
Im also waiting for Alpha to clarify, I think theres a good chance its a no toogs game too if he didnt guarantee one. I'll math it after he answers.
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs
Kaz is a better mafia player than I

jasonC

  • Mafia Endgame
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 3645
  • Rated: +731
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #40 on: May 27, 2017, 05:33:42 pm »
@Reiraku if you were originally toogs, you should say so, and we lynch BK for an easy win
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs

✰Alpha✰

  • Commando
  • Game Bot
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *****
  • Posts: 3119
  • Child of Despair
  • Rated: +1895
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #41 on: May 27, 2017, 05:43:16 pm »
@✰Alpha✰

Is a no toogs/minion setup possible with the randomized roles or did you make sure to include at least 1 in the roles?

It is possible there are no Toogs/Minion in this game.
  • Like x 1    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs (List of Rates | 1 Post Total)
Lynch: RadicalFuzz
Quote from: tortugagrande
That bio is the douchiest thing I have read all year, and I am an editor for yeswearedouchebags.com.

Pimp Willy

  • Spam Defender
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 3877
  • Fuck Fantasy Football
  • Rated: +1501
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #42 on: May 27, 2017, 05:56:45 pm »
Okay, so theres a good possibility there aren't any toogs at all.

16 roles, we took 6, 3 of the 16 was mafia. Anybody know statistics? Its been a minute for me lol
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs
Kaz is a better mafia player than I

Pimp Willy

  • Spam Defender
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 3877
  • Fuck Fantasy Football
  • Rated: +1501
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #43 on: May 27, 2017, 06:11:13 pm »
Did some quick math using http://www.dcode.fr/picking-probabilities

16 objects, 3 distinct from the others (2 toogs 1 minion), 6 objects picked, at least 1 picked, results is 48% chance to get a toogs.

So half the games with this format, there is not even a single toogs. Worth noting. Too close to really take it into consideration. If it was like, 75% chance for no toogs, then maybe we start thinking about a no lynch

(Im not sure if this takes into consideration of only 1 toogs or 1+ toogs).
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs
Kaz is a better mafia player than I

Pimp Willy

  • Spam Defender
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 3877
  • Fuck Fantasy Football
  • Rated: +1501
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #44 on: May 27, 2017, 06:11:25 pm »
@jasonC so are you revealing your actual role yet?
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs
Kaz is a better mafia player than I

jasonC

  • Mafia Endgame
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 3645
  • Rated: +731
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #45 on: May 27, 2017, 06:11:34 pm »
Okay, so theres a good possibility there aren't any toogs at all.

16 roles, we took 6, 3 of the 16 was mafia. Anybody know statistics? Its been a minute for me lol

21% chance there's no toogs
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs

jasonC

  • Mafia Endgame
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 3645
  • Rated: +731
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #46 on: May 27, 2017, 06:12:13 pm »
@jasonC so are you revealing your actual role yet?

No, I'd like to wait on Reiraku
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs

jasonC

  • Mafia Endgame
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 3645
  • Rated: +731
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #47 on: May 27, 2017, 06:16:12 pm »
Did some quick math using http://www.dcode.fr/picking-probabilities

16 objects, 3 distinct from the others (2 toogs 1 minion), 6 objects picked, at least 1 picked, results is 48% chance to get a toogs.

So half the games with this format, there is not even a single toogs. Worth noting. Too close to really take it into consideration. If it was like, 75% chance for no toogs, then maybe we start thinking about a no lynch

(Im not sure if this takes into consideration of only 1 toogs or 1+ toogs).

48% chance to get 1 toogs, you still have to add the chances to get 2 toogs, and 3
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs

jasonC

  • Mafia Endgame
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 3645
  • Rated: +731
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #48 on: May 27, 2017, 06:18:07 pm »
I guess I can claim something "safe" like Insomniac.
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs

Pimp Willy

  • Spam Defender
  • Sourdough Toast
  • *
  • Posts: 3877
  • Fuck Fantasy Football
  • Rated: +1501
Re: One Night Ultimate Toogs - Game 5
« Reply #49 on: May 27, 2017, 06:23:00 pm »
21% chance there's no toogs

Yeah I ran it with 0 picked and got 21% so we are not really going to entertain that idea
  • Like    Dislike    Agree    Disagree    WTF    Insightful    LOL    Toasty    salty    Toogs
Kaz is a better mafia player than I